CORONAVIRUS AND ITS AFTER EFFECTS
DID YOU KNOW?
BY Testimony Akinkunmi.
• Most people will recover from coronavirus.
• Some long recovered patients will remain infectious.
• There have been cases of reinfection.
FAQ’S
1. What is the recovery rate?
At the time of writing, on 20 April, the mortality rate among confirmed cases was 4%. Though the good news is the true figure is likely to be lower, because of large numbers of unreported people with mild symptoms. The UK’s chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, has disputed the WHO’s global figure of 3.4%, saying he believes the eventual toll will be around 1%. One reassuring tipping point to bear in mind is that around one month after the initial outbreak in China, with strict containment measures in place, the number of recoveries began to outstrip the number of new cases. This is the point the West’s containment measures are hoping to reach.
2. When can I go back to work?
The CDC defines recovery from COVID-19 as an absence of fever, with no use of fever-reducing medication, for three full days; improvement in other symptoms, such as coughing and shortness of breath; a period of seven full days since symptoms first appeared. Two negative swab tests on consecutive days are considered as the all-clear – meaning self-isolation can end and a patient can theoretically begin having contact with others, including at work.
3. What is the World doing about the coronavirus outbreak?
In practice, many governments and companies are still encouraging remote working even among healthy patients. In addition, anyone living with someone with coronavirus is also advised to self-isolate for 14 days following the appearance of symptoms in the initial patient.
Like the fall of the Berlin Wall or the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the coronavirus pandemic is a world-shattering event whose far-ranging consequences we can only begin to imagine today.
This much is certain: Just as this disease has shattered lives, disrupted markets and exposed the competence (or lack thereof) of governments, it will lead to permanent shifts in political and economic power in ways that will become apparent only later.
WHAT HAPPENS AFTER?
To help us make sense of the ground shifting beneath our feet as this crisis unfolds, we asked 3 leading thinkers from around the world to weigh in with their predictions for the global order after the pandemic.
The History of COVID-19 Will Be Written by the Victors
By John Allen
As it has always been, history will be written by the “victors” of the COVID-19 crisis. Every nation, and increasingly every individual, is experiencing the societal strain of this disease in new and powerful ways. Inevitably, those nations that persevere—both by virtue of their unique political and economic systems, as well as from a public health perspective—will claim success over those who experience a different, more devastating outcome. To some, this will appear as a great and definitive triumph for democracy, multilateralism, and universal health care. To others, it will showcase the clear “benefits” of decisive, authoritarian rule.
To some, this will appear as a great and definitive triumph for democracy. To others, it will showcase the clear “benefits” of authoritarian rule.
Either way, this crisis will reshuffle the international power structure in ways we can only begin to imagine. COVID-19 will continue to depress economic activity and increase tension between countries. Over the long term, the pandemic will likely significantly reduce the productive capacity of the global economy, especially if businesses close and individuals detach from the labor force. This risk of dislocation is especially great for developing nations and others with a large share of economically vulnerable workers. The international system will, in turn, come under great pressure, resulting in instability and widespread conflict within and across countries.
This Pandemic Can Serve a Useful Purpose
By Shivshankar Menon
It is early days yet, but three things seem apparent. First, the coronavirus pandemic will change our politics, both within states and between them. It is to the power of government that societies—even libertarians—have turned. Government’s relative success in overcoming the pandemic and its economic effects will exacerbate or diminish security issues and the recent polarization within societies. Either way, government is back. Experience so far shows that authoritarians or populists are no better at handling the pandemic. Indeed, the countries that responded early and successfully, such as Korea and Taiwan, have been democracies—not those run by populist or authoritarian leaders.
This is not yet the end of an interconnected world. The pandemic itself is proof of our interdependence.
Secondly, this is not yet the end of an interconnected world. The pandemic itself is proof of our interdependence. But in all polities, there is already a turning inward, a search for autonomy and control of one’s own fate. We are headed for a poorer, meaner, and smaller world.
Finally, there are signs of hope and good sense. India took the initiative to convene a video conference of all South Asian leaders to craft a common regional response to the threat. If the pandemic shocks us into recognizing our real interest in cooperating multilaterally on the big global issues facing us, it will have served a useful purpose.
Lower Profits, but More Stability
By Shannon K. O’Neil
COVID-19 is undermining the basic tenets of global manufacturing. Companies will now rethink and shrink the multistep, multicounty supply chains that dominate production today.
Global supply chains were already coming under fire, both economically and politically.
Global supply chains were already coming under fire—economically, due to rising Chinese labor costs, U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war, and advances in robotics, automation, and 3D printing, as well as politically, due to real and perceived job losses, especially in mature economies. COVID-19 has now broken many of these links: Factory closings in afflicted areas have left other manufacturers—as well as hospitals, pharmacies, supermarkets, and retail stores—bereft of inventories and products.
On the other side of the pandemic, more companies will demand to know more about where their supplies come from and will trade off efficiency for redundancy. Governments will intervene as well, forcing what they consider strategic industries to have domestic backup plans and reserves. Profitability will fall, but supply stability should rise.
With all this in Mind. “Let us hope for the best and expect the worst”
Stay Safe.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Testimony Orinayo Akinkunmi is a first year student of Law at the University of Abuja. Nigeria, a fellow at Association of Creative Writers - University of Abuja (ACW-UA), YALE youth initiative and the Royal Ambassadors.
His interests range from reading, travelling, asking questions, personal development, volunteering among others.
His Favorite quote is, "Sometimes,it is people who no one imagines anything of that do things no one can imagine."
© ACW-UA PRESS.
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